This is a sequel to my previous post IPL Matches are Fixed.
The basic that I tried to answer in my previous post was whether or not IPL is fixed. I looked at various patterns in which teams are winning and losing various matches. A lot of people who read my previous post of IPL do seem to agree that IPL matches are fixed. But there are few skeptics. That made me think.
Why IPL matches are fixed ?
Many people believe that IPL are meant to show sporting prowess of various sportsmen, and matches are won and lost based on the merit of the game played. But is that true. As pointed out by various members of the media and even owners of various teams, IPL is just a business for them. And in business what matters most to a businessman is profits. The question one must ask here is does good performance in the field equates to good profit for the teams. I do not think so. There is no co-relation between profits and performance in the fields. Money is made from TV ads, ticket sales, and the works. Winning and losing does not have any affect on a teams fortunes. If you look at first season of IPL (http://www.cricket360.com/indian-premier-league-teams.html) you would notice that only two teams made profit, KKR and RR. While one can argue that RR made profits because it won the season, but same cannot be said for KKR. So why did KKR made the profit, it did not won the season, it did not even qualify for the semis. It started with a big bang and then lost its mojo somewhere in between. Well KKR made profit because more money was made from matches that KKR played. And the reason for more money being made is that there was more unpredictability in KKR matches and more excitement too. KKR was losing matches left right and center, yet they were laughing all their way to bank. Why in earth will they win a match if they are making good money losing them. Even in season two KKR is said to be one of the teams that made the most profit even after being the punching bag of the season. I tried to find the exact revenues made by various teams in season two but could not find any site offering this data If you find it, please do let me know.
One question could be asked that as same players play for both national teams and IPL, how can we expect that they play fair in international matches and not in IPL matches. To answer this let us first ignore the fact that match fixing in international cricket is not an unknown phenomenon, as assume that all international matches are played fair. When a player plays for his country, he mostly plays for national pride and not money. The money cricketers make for playing matches in very minimal and most of their income comes from advertising. And we have seen quite often how ad money is linked to the player performance in the field. But in the case of IPL that is not the case. No one is playing for national pride, also most players (except tendulkar, ganguly) are not even playing for their home city. So national or city pride does not come into picture. The only thing the players play for is money. And this money does not come to them by doing some ads for various companies, they make money by just playing. Winning is not necessary. As for all the ad money that comes from matches, it goes to the team owners and not the players. So players have no incentive to play better or win matches. They make the same money no matter what and there is also no emotional value attached to winning or losing.
So the question arises that
Does winning or losing matches have any impact on anyone what so ever?
And the answer is a big YES. Winning and losing impacts the interest of people watching IPL. Everyone likes to cheer the underdog or boast of loyalties towards the hot favorites. So when things do not pan out as expected by fans, their interest in the game tend to increase. They are more likely to watch the match whole match and even the pre and post match analysis by various so called "experts". But more importantly they watch the ads that come in between. And these ads are the real source of income for the teams. Hence it in all the teams' interest that they make sure that all matches are as interesting as possible. To put icing on the cake team owners also employ foreign cheerleaders, Bollywood celebrities and the works. IPL is more talked for its glam factor then for the result of the matches. The celebrities and the after match parties have made IPL a page three event instead of sporting event. And all this increases the interest of people attracting more eyeballs.
There a pattern emerging from observing the first three seasons of IPL. In season one, MI, KKR, DC, CSK and DD were considered hot favorites, while RR were considered as the underdogs. But what happened in the end, DC were the punching bags of the season while RR eventually won the season. In season two, odd did not changes much, just that RR too was considered a hot favorite. But what happened was quite dramatic, KKR became the punching bag, DC won the series and RR were nowhere close to the title. If one looks at the track record of DC, they will notice that they had only 56% success rate. Which is quite less as compared to other teams in the season yet they won the season. In season one and two combined, they had only 36% success rate, yet they have a season title under their belt. There are quite a few teams with much better stats, yet they have not won even a single title. If we look at season three, now KXIP has become the punching bag, which by the way was performing quite decent in the first two seasons. RR and DC which won the first two seasons too are most likely to miss the semis and MI are the hot favorites. The same MI which performed well below expectations in the first two seasons.
The next question that comes to my mind is
So what is next and why?
What I have noticed in these three seasons that the team that has performed badly in the previous season tends to win/become favorites in the next. And each team that wins a season tends to perform very badly in subsequent seasons. It looks like a pattern that keeps repeating itself. Before going forward we must look into the role of BCCI in all this. BCCI is the organizing body for the IPL. It has sold the teams for a period of 10 years to various team owners. We also know that people in BCCI has strong business sense and would like to make as much money as possible from the IPL. So how to BCCI make money. It made money by selling the teams of 10 years, it makes money from the ad revenue of the matches, 30% to be exact. And it will make money again by selling the teams seven years from now. To maximize the ad money, it is also in BCCI's interest to keep the matching exciting and make people glued to their TVs. But the bulk of the money would be made seven years from now when they sell the teams again. If after seven years some teams have performed very well while others very badly, BCCI will lose money as losing teams will fetch very little money. So it is in BCCI's interest that it keeps all the teams competitive and equally appealing to the new set of owners who buy the teams. This can only be done if all the teams have performed well in some of the seasons. So I predict that by the time next IPL teams are sold, all the teams would have won atleast one season and been the punching bag in one.Why IPL matches are fixed ?
Many people believe that IPL are meant to show sporting prowess of various sportsmen, and matches are won and lost based on the merit of the game played. But is that true. As pointed out by various members of the media and even owners of various teams, IPL is just a business for them. And in business what matters most to a businessman is profits. The question one must ask here is does good performance in the field equates to good profit for the teams. I do not think so. There is no co-relation between profits and performance in the fields. Money is made from TV ads, ticket sales, and the works. Winning and losing does not have any affect on a teams fortunes. If you look at first season of IPL (http://www.cricket360.com/indian-premier-league-teams.html) you would notice that only two teams made profit, KKR and RR. While one can argue that RR made profits because it won the season, but same cannot be said for KKR. So why did KKR made the profit, it did not won the season, it did not even qualify for the semis. It started with a big bang and then lost its mojo somewhere in between. Well KKR made profit because more money was made from matches that KKR played. And the reason for more money being made is that there was more unpredictability in KKR matches and more excitement too. KKR was losing matches left right and center, yet they were laughing all their way to bank. Why in earth will they win a match if they are making good money losing them. Even in season two KKR is said to be one of the teams that made the most profit even after being the punching bag of the season. I tried to find the exact revenues made by various teams in season two but could not find any site offering this data If you find it, please do let me know.
One question could be asked that as same players play for both national teams and IPL, how can we expect that they play fair in international matches and not in IPL matches. To answer this let us first ignore the fact that match fixing in international cricket is not an unknown phenomenon, as assume that all international matches are played fair. When a player plays for his country, he mostly plays for national pride and not money. The money cricketers make for playing matches in very minimal and most of their income comes from advertising. And we have seen quite often how ad money is linked to the player performance in the field. But in the case of IPL that is not the case. No one is playing for national pride, also most players (except tendulkar, ganguly) are not even playing for their home city. So national or city pride does not come into picture. The only thing the players play for is money. And this money does not come to them by doing some ads for various companies, they make money by just playing. Winning is not necessary. As for all the ad money that comes from matches, it goes to the team owners and not the players. So players have no incentive to play better or win matches. They make the same money no matter what and there is also no emotional value attached to winning or losing.
So the question arises that
Does winning or losing matches have any impact on anyone what so ever?
And the answer is a big YES. Winning and losing impacts the interest of people watching IPL. Everyone likes to cheer the underdog or boast of loyalties towards the hot favorites. So when things do not pan out as expected by fans, their interest in the game tend to increase. They are more likely to watch the match whole match and even the pre and post match analysis by various so called "experts". But more importantly they watch the ads that come in between. And these ads are the real source of income for the teams. Hence it in all the teams' interest that they make sure that all matches are as interesting as possible. To put icing on the cake team owners also employ foreign cheerleaders, Bollywood celebrities and the works. IPL is more talked for its glam factor then for the result of the matches. The celebrities and the after match parties have made IPL a page three event instead of sporting event. And all this increases the interest of people attracting more eyeballs.
There a pattern emerging from observing the first three seasons of IPL. In season one, MI, KKR, DC, CSK and DD were considered hot favorites, while RR were considered as the underdogs. But what happened in the end, DC were the punching bags of the season while RR eventually won the season. In season two, odd did not changes much, just that RR too was considered a hot favorite. But what happened was quite dramatic, KKR became the punching bag, DC won the series and RR were nowhere close to the title. If one looks at the track record of DC, they will notice that they had only 56% success rate. Which is quite less as compared to other teams in the season yet they won the season. In season one and two combined, they had only 36% success rate, yet they have a season title under their belt. There are quite a few teams with much better stats, yet they have not won even a single title. If we look at season three, now KXIP has become the punching bag, which by the way was performing quite decent in the first two seasons. RR and DC which won the first two seasons too are most likely to miss the semis and MI are the hot favorites. The same MI which performed well below expectations in the first two seasons.
The next question that comes to my mind is
So what is next and why?
There are three parties who make money in IPL, BCCI, team owners and the players. And the amount of money they make does not depend on how players play in the field or whether or not the games were played fairly. All that matters is how many people watched the matches and how much money is made through advertising, etc. When neither of the three parties have any incentive to play fairly or win matches, I do not think anyone is playing fairly to win matches. IPL is not a game of cricket, it is a game of money where the BCCI, team owners and players are winning and the viewers are losing.
